Predicting
How to place make predictions
Turn your insights into returns - making predictions on Kash is as simple as replying to a tweet.
Understanding Market Odds
How Prediction Markets Work
Kash uses binary prediction markets where prices represent probabilities:
Price = Probability
Price = Probability
- YES at $0.72 = 72% chance of event happening
- NO at $0.28 = 28% chance of event NOT happening
- Always sums to $1.00 = 100% probability total
- Prices change as people place predictions and new information emerges
Your Potential Returns
Your Potential Returns
- Buy YES at $0.72 - You pay $0.72 per share
- If YES wins: You receive $1.00 per share
- Your profit: $0.28 per share (38.9% return)
- If NO wins: You lose your prediction entirely
- Example: $100 prediction → 138.89 shares → $138.89 if correct
Market Dynamics
Market Dynamics
- Early predictions often get better rates before consensus forms
- Breaking news can rapidly shift prices
- Large predictions move rates more than small ones
- Smart money keeps markets efficient through arbitrage
- Social sentiment influences prediction patterns
How to Make Predictions
Discover active prediction markets
Through Your X Feed
- Follow @kash_bot - Turn on notifications for instant alerts (coming soon)
- Look for market posts in trending topic discussions
- Tagged in relevant threads about events you care about
- Shared by other predictors in your network
Ask for Recommendations
Tweet or DM @kash_bot with (coming soon):
- “Show me markets” - See all active markets
- “What can I predict on?” - Get personalized suggestions
- “Markets about [topic]?” - Find specific category markets
- “Find me crypto predictions” - Category-specific requests
Market Post Format
Discover active prediction markets
Through Your X Feed
- Follow @kash_bot - Turn on notifications for instant alerts (coming soon)
- Look for market posts in trending topic discussions
- Tagged in relevant threads about events you care about
- Shared by other predictors in your network
Ask for Recommendations
Tweet or DM @kash_bot with (coming soon):
- “Show me markets” - See all active markets
- “What can I predict on?” - Get personalized suggestions
- “Markets about [topic]?” - Find specific category markets
- “Find me crypto predictions” - Category-specific requests
Market Post Format
Simple social prediction through replies
Easy Reply Format
Just reply to any market with:
- “YES 50” - Predict $50 that the event will happen
- “NO 100” - Predict $100 that it won’t happen
- “YES $25” - Dollar sign is optional
- “no 10” - Case doesn’t matter
Automatic Execution
- @kash_bot confirms your prediction intent
- Checks wallet balance to ensure sufficient funds
- Executes the trade at current market price
- Replies with confirmation and your position details
Example interaction:
How outcomes are determined
Market Close Process
- Trading stops at predetermined deadline
- Existing positions locked - no more changes allowed
- Await final outcome determination
- Resolution typically within hours of event conclusion
AI-Powered Resolution
- Automated data fetching from trusted sources
- AI verification of outcome using multiple sources
- Zero-knowledge proofs ensure trustless resolution
- Instant settlement to winner wallets
- Transparent process - all results publicly verifiable
Power user prediction options
Leverage Prediction
- Predict up to 2x your balance with qualifying accounts
- Higher risk, higher reward potential
- 5% interest fee paid to treasury
- Example: “YES 200 2x” to leverage a $200 prediction
Private Predictions
DM @kash_bot for discreet prediction:
- No public announcements of your prediction
- Same execution process as public predictions
- Ideal for large positions that might move markets
- Maintains prediction anonymity while staying social
Limit Orders
Set your preferred entry price:
- “YES 100 at 0.65” - Execute when price drops to $0.65
- Executes automatically when conditions are met
- Good for patient traders who want specific prices
- Cancel anytime before execution
Prediction Strategies
Information Edge
Information Edge
Leverage knowledge for better predictions
- Research before predicting - Read news, analyze trends, understand context
- Follow reliable sources - Trust verified accounts and expert analysis
- Spot market inefficiencies - Find rates that don’t match reality
- Act on breaking news - Be first to capitalize on new information
Portfolio Approach
Portfolio Approach
Manage risk like a professional trader
- Diversify across markets - Don’t put all eggs in one basket
- Don’t predict entire balance - Keep reserves for better opportunities
- Take profits regularly - Lock in gains instead of letting them ride
- Manage risk carefully - Size predictions according to confidence level
Social Signals
Social Signals
Managing Your Positions
Track Your Position
Track Your Position
Stay informed about your investments
- See current value - Monitor real-time position worth
- Monitor odds changes - Watch how probabilities shift
- Calculate profit/loss - Understand your potential returns
- Decide on exit - Plan when to sell or hold
Sell Before Close
Sell Before Close
Exit positions strategically
- Lock in profits early - Secure gains before market closes
- Cut losses if needed - Minimize damage from bad predictions
- Reply “sell my YES” - Simple command to exit position
- Instant execution - Trades happen immediately at market price
Add to Position
Add to Position
Increase your stake when confident
- Double down if confident - Increase position size on strong conviction
- Average your entry price - Improve overall position cost basis
- “YES 50 more” - Easy command to add to existing position
- No limits on trades - Add as many times as you want
Unlimited Trading
Unlimited Trading
Trade without restrictions
- No daily limits on prediction placement
- Post as many predictions as you want
- Engage in multiple markets simultaneously
- No throttling or trading restrictions
- 24/7 availability for active traders
- Perfect for users who want to maximize their prediction activity
Essential Commands & Tips
Master these basic commands for efficient trading
Action | Command | Example |
---|---|---|
Predict on YES | "YES [amount]" | "YES 50" |
Predict on NO | "NO [amount]" | "NO 100" |
Check balance | "balance" | "balance" |
See positions | "my predictions" | "my predictions" |
Sell position | "sell [position]" | "sell my YES" |
Find markets | "show markets" | "show markets" |
Limit order | "YES [amount] at [price]" | "YES 100 at 0.65" |
Leverage prediction | "YES [amount] 2x" | "YES 200 2x" |
Master these basic commands for efficient trading
Action | Command | Example |
---|---|---|
Predict on YES | "YES [amount]" | "YES 50" |
Predict on NO | "NO [amount]" | "NO 100" |
Check balance | "balance" | "balance" |
See positions | "my predictions" | "my predictions" |
Sell position | "sell [position]" | "sell my YES" |
Find markets | "show markets" | "show markets" |
Limit order | "YES [amount] at [price]" | "YES 100 at 0.65" |
Leverage prediction | "YES [amount] 2x" | "YES 200 2x" |
Advanced strategies for experienced predictors
Timing Your Predictions
- Early markets often have better rates before consensus forms
- Breaking news creates temporary price inefficiencies
- Market close approaches can create last-minute opportunities
Risk Management
- Start small while learning market dynamics
- Set stop losses by selling when positions turn negative
- Take profits at 20-30% gains to compound returns
Information Sources
- Follow @kash_bot for instant market alerts
- Monitor news feeds for breaking developments
- Join prediction communities for collective intelligence
Every expert predictor started with their first prediction. Start small, learn the dynamics, and let your edge compound over time!
Learn from the crowd and contrarian opportunities