Guides
Predicting
How to place make predictions
Turn your insights into returns - making predictions on Kash is as simple as reposting your prediction of a market.
Understanding Market Odds
How Prediction Markets Work
Kash uses binary prediction markets where prices represent probabilities:Price = Probability
Price = Probability
- YES at $0.72 = 72% chance of event happening
- NO at $0.28 = 28% chance of event NOT happening
- Always sums to $1.00 = 100% probability total
- Prices change as people place predictions and new information emerges
Your Potential Returns
Your Potential Returns
- Buy YES at $0.72 - You pay $0.72 per share
- If YES wins: You receive $1.00 per share
- Your profit: $0.28 per share (38.9% return)
- If NO wins: You lose your prediction entirely
- Example: $100 prediction → 138.89 shares → $138.89 if correct
Market Dynamics
Market Dynamics
- Early predictions often get better rates before consensus forms
- Breaking news can rapidly shift prices
- Large predictions move rates more than small ones
- Smart money keeps markets efficient through arbitrage
- Social sentiment influences prediction patterns
How to Make Predictions
Discover active prediction markets
Through Your X Feed
- Follow @kash_bot - Turn on notifications for instant alerts (coming soon)
- Look for market posts in trending topic discussions
- Tagged in relevant threads about events you care about
- Shared by other predictors in your network
Ask for Recommendations
Tweet or DM @kash_bot with (coming soon):- “Show me markets” - See all active markets
- “What can I predict on?” - Get personalized suggestions
- “Markets about [topic]?” - Find specific category markets
- “Find me crypto predictions” - Category-specific requests
Market Post Format
Prediction Strategies
Information Edge
Information Edge
Leverage knowledge for better predictions
- Research before predicting - Read news, analyze trends, understand context
- Follow reliable sources - Trust verified accounts and expert analysis
- Spot market inefficiencies - Find rates that don’t match reality
- Act on breaking news - Be first to capitalize on new information
Portfolio Approach
Portfolio Approach
Manage risk like a professional trader
- Diversify across markets - Don’t put all eggs in one basket
- Don’t predict entire balance - Keep reserves for better opportunities
- Take profits regularly - Lock in gains instead of letting them ride
- Manage risk carefully - Size predictions according to confidence level
Social Signals
Social Signals
Managing Your Positions
Track Your Position
Track Your Position
Stay informed about your investments
- See current value - Monitor real-time position worth
- Monitor odds changes - Watch how probabilities shift
- Calculate profit/loss - Understand your potential returns
- Decide on exit - Plan when to sell or hold
Sell Before Close
Sell Before Close
Exit positions strategically
- Lock in profits early - Secure gains before market closes
- Cut losses if needed - Minimize damage from bad predictions
- Repost the market with “sell my YES” - Simple command to exit position
- Instant execution - Trades happen immediately at market price
Add to Position
Add to Position
Increase your stake when confident
- Double down if confident - Increase position size on strong conviction
- Average your entry price - Improve overall position cost basis
- “YES 50 more” - Easy command to add to existing position
- No limits on trades - Add as many times as you want
Unlimited Trading
Unlimited Trading
Trade without restrictions
- No daily limits on prediction placement
- Post as many predictions as you want
- Engage in multiple markets simultaneously
- No throttling or trading restrictions
- 24/7 availability for active traders
- Perfect for users who want to maximize their prediction activity
Essential Commands & Tips
Master these basic commands for efficient trading
| Action | Command | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Predict on YES | "YES [amount]" | "YES 50" |
| Predict on NO | "NO [amount]" | "NO 100" |
| Check balance | "balance" | "balance" |
| See positions | "my predictions" | "my predictions" |
| Sell position | "sell [position]" | "sell my YES" |
| Find markets | "show markets" | "show markets" |
| Limit order | "YES [amount] at [price]" | "YES 100 at 0.65" |
| Leverage prediction | "YES [amount] 2x" | "YES 200 2x" |
Every expert predictor started with their first prediction. Start small, learn the dynamics, and let your edge compound over time!