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Understanding market prices

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How prediction markets work

Every market shows an implied chance for each outcome: the market’s current estimate of how likely it is, based on real money traded.
  • Yes at 72% means the market currently implies a 72% chance the event happens
  • The implied chance moves as people trade and new information emerges
  • Buying an outcome pushes its price up; selling pushes it down
  • Markets can have more than two outcomes, and the same logic applies to each one
  • The trade ticket shows an estimated payout if your outcome wins before you confirm
  • The lower the price when you buy, the higher your estimated payout if you’re right
  • The estimate can shift as others trade. What your shares redeem for is fixed when the market resolves
  • If your outcome doesn’t happen, the position is worth nothing at resolution
  • You can sell at the current price any time before trading closes
  • Early predictions often get better prices before consensus forms
  • Breaking news can shift prices quickly
  • Large trades move prices more than small ones

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How to make predictions

1

Find a market

Browse the home feed, categories or search in the Kash web app at app.kash.bot.
2

Pick an outcome

Tap the outcome you believe in. The trade ticket opens.
3

Set your amount

Enter how much USDC to spend. The ticket shows the fees and your estimated payout if your outcome wins.
4

Confirm

Confirm the trade. It executes from your own self-custodial wallet, and the position appears in your Portfolio.

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Prediction strategies

  • Read the rules and sources on the market page: the result is determined from them
  • Research before predicting: news, trends, context
  • Use public sources: the market’s own sources are a good place to start
  • Diversify across markets
  • Don’t trade your entire balance
  • Size predictions to your confidence
  • Watch strong predictors on the leaderboard and follow them
  • Copy a trader you trust from their profile. See Trading Options

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Managing your positions

  • Portfolio shows every open position, its current value and live P&L
  • Plan your exit: sell early or hold to resolution
  • Sell all or part of a position at the current price
  • Sell from the market page or your Portfolio
  • Sells pay a protocol fee plus a small sell fee that stays in the market’s pool
  • Buy the same outcome again to increase your position
  • Adding at a different price averages your entry
Start small while you learn how prices move. The ticket shows every fee before you confirm.

Finding markets

Discover markets to predict on

Redeeming positions

How resolved positions are redeemed